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recover Driver Eq. 5 of addedT0TIPREDVAR as λ² t0_b² v + θ (observed) #323

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@seonghobae

One atomic recover after #321: Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 3 T0TIPREDEFFECT; Eq. 5, p. 5; Table 2 MANIFESTVAR is Θ not Var(y)) extra first-occasion TI variance composed with the measurement model.

Map. Form t0_b² v first (addedT0TIPREDVAR), then recover_manifest_observed_variance(λ, t0_b² v, θ) so the observed composition is λ² t0_b² v + θ.

Distinct from TRAITVAR, TRAITVARstd, addedTIPREDVAR (B/a)² v, T0VAR, MANIFESTVAR θ, latent t0_b² v, and the θ=0 extra λ² t0_b² v (#308).

Fail closed. v < 0 fails closed. Non-event clock fails closed. Zero t0_b or zero v is exactly θ. Zero loading is exactly θ. Do not require stable a < 0 (free first-occasion T0TIPREDEFFECT).

Four files only: event_time.rs, error.rs, lib.rs, scientific_claim_boundary_contract.rs. Do not reuse branch feat/psychometric-eq5-added-t0-tipred-var or agent/psychometric-eq5-added-t0-tipred-var-on-main (#308).

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  1. added a commit that references this issue on Aug 30, 2026
    dea73f1
  2. seonghobae commented on Aug 30, 2026

    @seonghobae
    ContributorAuthor

    Opened draft PR #325 on agent/psychometric-eq5-added-t0-tipred-var-plus-theta (dea73f1) for Eq. 5 of 2017-era addedT0TIPREDVAR composed with MANIFESTVAR: λ² t0_b² v + θ. Four files. Distinct from #308 (θ = 0). Does not reuse the #308 branch. Local cargo fmt, clippy -D warnings, lib 188, boundary 53. Not merging: no independent non-author APPROVE.

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