feat(psychometric): recover 2017-era active asymptotes=TRUE TIPREDEFFECT rewrite on main

[seonghobae]

Summary

psychometric_core recovers the 2017-era active asymptotes=TRUE TIPREDEFFECT rewrite as the scalar −a · B on current main.

This is an independent companion of still-unmerged PR #349 (CINT <- -DRIFT %*% CINT as −a · κ). It branches from origin/main 1bc02f5, does not wait for #349, and is not stacked on draft PR #352. #352 used a different public name (recover_asymptotes_true_time_independent_predictor_effect), reserved register items 106–107 that collide with CINT #349, refused CINT instead of TIPREDEFFECTstd, and edited ARCHITECTURE.md mega-rows. This PR uses recover_asymptotes_true_time_independent_effect, items 108–109, and a standardised-TIPREDEFFECT refuse. Do not close #352 from this PR.

cran/ctsem 2.5.0 summary.ctsemFit.R forms if(asymptotes==TRUE) TIPREDEFFECT <- -DRIFT %*% TIPREDEFFECT immediately after mxobj$TIPREDEFFECT$values and puts that rewrite in the active outlist. Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12; Eq. 1, p. 4; Eq. 3, p. 5; p. 16; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-31T15:26Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) name B TIPREDEFFECT. Form a first, then negate, then multiply by B. When asymptotes=TRUE the stored TIPREDEFFECT is the asymptotic parameterization Table 2 / §7.2 names asymTIPREDEFFECT -B / a; multiplying by -DRIFT converts that stored value back to original B. −a · (-B / a) = B. The companion active rewrite CINT <- -DRIFT %*% CINT uses the same operator on a different matrix and is not this coefficient map.

A zero coefficient is exactly zero even if a ≥ 0. a ≥ 0 with a nonzero coefficient fails closed. Numeric: a = −0.5, B = 0.4 recovers 0.2, distinct from unstandardised TIPREDEFFECT (0.4), from asymTIPREDEFFECT -B / a (0.8), from the finite-interval increment at Δt = 1 (≈ 0.3148), and from TIPREDEFFECTstd B · √v / √p (≈ 0.6325 when v = 1, p = 0.4). Stored -B / a = 0.8 recovers original B 0.4. LeisureTime printed asymTIPREDEFFECT = −1.673 with B = −0.225 reconstructs a and recovers original B; Happiness printed 0.219 with B = 0.549 does the same. Unstandardised B is not this rewrite. asymTIPREDEFFECT is not this rewrite. The finite-interval increment is not this rewrite. TIPREDEFFECTstd is not this rewrite. A non-event clock fails closed.

Meredith (1993) remains unread (Unpaywall historically is_oa: false; Springer content/pdf is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, Psychometrika, 56, 177–196, DOI 10.1007/bf02294457) remains unread on the same terms. Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix expm, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

Plan

Fail-closed scalar recover_asymptotes_true_time_independent_effect(time_independent_effect, log_rate, clock) as −a · B on origin/main, with four refuse helpers (unstandardised B, asymTIPREDEFFECT, discrete increment, TIPREDEFFECTstd), five error variants, register items 108–109, CHANGELOG, ADR 0005, and crate/contract tests. Independent of #349 and #352.

Verification

• cargo fmt --all
• cargo clippy -p psychometric_core --all-targets -- -D warnings
• cargo test -p psychometric_core --lib (194)
• cargo test -p psychometric_core --test multilevel_event_time_recovery_contract (110)
• cargo test -p psychometric_core --test scientific_claim_boundary_contract (53)
• RUSTDOCFLAGS='-D warnings' cargo doc -p psychometric_core --no-deps

Closes #354

Register items 108–109.

Opened by: Grok Build (xAI) on behalf of Seongho Bae.

Do not merge without independent non-author APPROVE + exact-head required-check success. Do not convert from draft. Do not self-approve.

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[seonghobae]

Queue-consolidation classification for the current recovery cycle: fold_into_landing_vehicle candidate — Longitudinal Psychometrics.

This PR overlaps #352 in the Driver/ctsem -a * B rewrite, but it also carries distinct public naming/guard/test/doctoring evidence. Do not close either source PR as a duplicate until a current-main Longitudinal Psychometrics landing vehicle compares both exact heads and preserves all unique evidence. The selected vehicle should keep the stronger named-quantity refusal and realistic published-example recovery coverage while removing redundant one-equation product boundaries.

Cargo crate/ADR granularity is implementation provenance, not automatic bounded-context ownership.

[seonghobae]

Restack on protected main (a243f18)

Non-force merge of origin/main (merge commit f0c8c877); the only conflict was the CHANGELOG.md append, both entries kept.

Local evidence on the pushed head (toolchain 1.98.0): cargo test -p psychometric_core 374 passed / 0 failed, clippy -D warnings clean, cargo fmt --all --check clean, documentation/workspace/docstring contracts PASS, git diff --check clean.

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