TGN (ASX) tungsten thesis: P(wtd) A$4.50-4.80 (20.5-22.0×) on Tier 2 frictionless defense path. Watershed Q2 2027 first production, A$1.31B NPV, 198% IRR, 9-mo payback. 387 kt JORC MRE. DFARS 252.225-7052 cliff Jan 1, 2027. A$254M funding gap = #1 risk. v9.57d.
