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paper: Identifiability Before Anthropic Bayes - #69
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… claims
- The abstract summarized the persistent-latent result without its
support hypothesis; with a_m>0=b_m and p_m(y)>0 the ratio is
unbounded, as the paper's own remark says.
- Three places said count ratios become centered odds only under the
uniformity, nondiscriminating-evidence and world-weighting
assumptions. Those conditions are sufficient, not necessary: one
world, F={f}, G={g1,g2}, kernel (1/2,1/4,1/4) and likelihoods
(1/2,1,1) give odds 1/2=|F|/|G| with neither. Say guaranteed by, and
otherwise only through special cancellation.
- Representation-only cloning is posterior-invariant only if each clone
stays in its parent's category; say so.
- claims.json typed P1-T5 as a theorem; the paper states a proposition.
- The workflow's negated greps never failed the job (bash -e ignores
commands negated with !), so the unresolved-reference and overfull-box
checks the paper describes were not enforced. Use if/exit.
- Cite bostrom2002 for SSA and SIA.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Draft research paper and reproducible audit bundle for the P1 publication direction.
Author: Jaden Fix — Tempera — Jaden@Tempera.dev
The manuscript develops an identifiability-first hierarchy before quantitative anthropic simulation Bayes: observable equivalence, representation/refinement invariance, persistent-latent sampling semantics, latent prior/channel identifiability, and scoped multiview gauge breaking.
The paper is not framed as evidence that reality is simulated. It positions elementary results as elementary, scopes the two-view theorem to the row-stochastic gauge orbit, preserves the absolute-continuity boundary for the persistent-latent Bayes-factor ceiling, and distinguishes prior literature from the integrated contribution.
The reproducibility bundle includes the manuscript, audited bibliography, citation provenance, theorem/nonclaim ledger, exact-rational reproduction code and deterministic receipt, synthetic peer-review and author-response artifacts, and paper-specific PDF-building CI.
Before external submission this remains a draft pending the latest CI/release checks, fresh PDF visual inspection, and ideally independent adversarial reads from specialists in anthropic/self-locating inference and latent-variable identifiability.